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My Thoughts On The Market: Shaun Coleman 13/2/23

I was challenged recently why I was so sure that share prices would be hit hard and to advise people to cash in while they could but at the same time advise people to buy shares, wasn’t I being a hypocrite. So folks this is a short lessons in economics and why back in December I was putting these messages out and was so sure at the time.

Here we are in 2023 and both Companies and Consumers are under pressure and are being more careful with their spending and that’s a Fact. When you look at the current financial situation and the global impacts that this is having on the costs of energy and food production it is impacting across the board.

In 2021 there was a lot of over-hiring that took place and the Growth reported by a lot of companies was largely assimilated from ‘Pull Forwards’ of sales orders during and after the Pandemic and by so doing set a very high base Growth figure for 2022 to be compared against.

Today we have a lot of Inflation uncertainty with the Bank Of England not sure on the financial positioning which in turn is led by the US Federal Reserve who keep increasing their interest rates in a bid to cool inflation. On top of this there are tougher Regulatory Scrutiny rules imposed which makes it difficult for companies to grow through acquiring other companies to add to their overall bottom line.

For sure conditions are tough and likely to get tougher and for many Small Companies their financial reserves and financial loan position from financial institutions will be impacted and many will find it difficult to survive.

Larger Companies can cut costs and they can buy back shares, so that for Reporting Purposes their Net Income is divided by fewer outstanding shares. The immediate focus for Management Teams is on Managing  and Cutting Costs by reducing stock in some cases, reducing their workforce, reducing their advertising spending but their is a limit to how much they can cut costs and the near term outlook is very uncertain.

None of this should come as any surprise. For many people they might adapt a hold position on their shares but I would counter argue that would mean allowing the share price to plummet and then you might have to wait a good number of years to see the share price rise to where it was. Given these Economic Conditions are set to be with us for a while.

Equally with lower share prices there are a number of what I class as Strategic Shares that should be held onto or even purchased as the Global Conditions dictate that these specific companies are being backed by Government Regulations and will see a steep rise as they power on. Not all are worth backing and personally I have 6 names that I have identified for various reasons in different sectors of the marketplace.

With a lower base rate to aim for with 2022 figures then you can expect the next set of Financial Reporting to be easier to achieve so long as Companies survive and are large enough to be able to manage their cost cutting to a point where financial loans and investments, grants, funds can be got to fund their investment plans. Not all will meet the threshold.

If 2023 remains tough then 2024 will be easier and so on. But the opportune moment now may be passed to sell your shares and if you hold will they ever return or will the company struggle to grow and survive, is the question you need to ask yourself. Or is the time ripe to buy up lower priced shares in those strategic companies and I would argue that now is the best time as if I am right these shares will and can only go one way and are fast tracked to do so.

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We look to sift through the myriad of news articles that are published and try to make sense of the content to see if is likely to have a bearing on individual company share prices such as these below.

Preparation is everything in this new economy. Everything from pension funds… to IRAs… ETFs… and even so-called “safe” stocks will be impacted by this massive shift… The aftershock will likely shake the energy market to its core… is what Stanford Economists are predicting.A new energy crisis is unfolding. You’re seeing it in action…

Prices at the pump have soared beyond $5… per gallon.Politicians want you to believe it’s ALL because of Russia. Well as you’ll see, all of these fear-mongering headlines are a distraction from what’s really happening.  Companies like Chevron, BP and Shell are planning the absolute unthinkable… Right as the world needs more oil…They plan on downsizing the oil and gas parts of their business.It’s crazy… even in the face of booming oil prices… These oil companies are cutting workers and downsizing their operations. The Wall Street Journal reported demand is outstripping supply… with little promise of relief ahead.

ABC News reported President Biden is conditioning Americans to accept the higher prices at the pump… when he said, “I will not pretend that this will be painless.” He added that “prices will rise… because freedom has its costs.”

Oil Giants Are Only Making It Worse…By Abandoning Their Business.They’re abandoning oil and gas projects left and right.They recently abandoned a $25 billion piece of property with oil rights!Exxon is considering following suit… as The Wall Street Journal reported… abandoning projects in excess of $5 billion in North Dakota.Shell’s CEO told Bloomberg they’re pushing ahead with this radical transition… despite higher oil prices.How does that make any sense? All of this… has essentially forced Washington’s hand.

Congress has now signed into effect a new law. A single move that could wean the US off o il and foreign energy… overnight. As a direct result $550 billion is tucked away in a federal document.Half a trillion dollars… specifically earmarked for America’s new energy crisis.

The oil and gas tycoons are preparing now.

Forbes confirmed it, saying “Even the world’s oil giants are getting ahead of the curve…”

The people running these companies aren’t stupid. They know with half a trillion dollars in federal funding….

It’s 100% inevitable. 100% guaranteed. 100% backed by the government.

And it’s not just some stretch of road out West… look how much this company is expanding… they have customers everywhere… from the US, to Europe…

This technology is still in its earliest phases, but these are companies to keep on your radar…

The world’s richest people fully understand what’s coming next and are taking full advantage of the situation.

Bill Gates, Jack Ma, Richard Branson, and Jeff Bezos are backing one tiny company and are backing against Elon Musk.

But that’s just the beginning. Major corporations are getting involved also.

Google spent $3.5 billion, Apple’s gone bigger with $4.7 billion, ExxonMobil has gone even bigger with a $15 billion investment! Goldman Sachs announced a $150 billion investment, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley are going even bigger. They’re in for $1 trillion… each. And not to be outdone… JP Morgan is investing $2.5 trillion.It’s just getting started and is why State Street Global Advisors – the world’s fourth largest asset manager – is calling it a “paradigm shift” in how everyone invests. You see, money flowing into this energy revolution hit an all-time high of $755 billion, it’s expected to surge to $130 trillion.

Amazon to lay off over 18k employees

Tech layoffs are coming thick and fast as the industry pares back on staffing amid macroeconomic headwinds. The first waves occurred in the middle of last year, but are only growing in strength and numbers. Many companies hired too aggressively during the pandemic, and they are realising that inflated payrolls and elevated costs are not holding up in the current business environment.

The latest: Salesforce  is cutting 10% of its workforce, and is closing some offices, leading to $1.4B-$2.1B in charges for the company and around 8,000 layoffs. Amazon is also slashing its headcount – by over double that figure. The retail behemoth has confirmed that 18,000 employees will get the axe, with the bulk of the roles due for elimination concentrated in the firm’s e-commerce and human resources organisations.

“The environment remains challenging and our customers are taking a more measured approach to their purchasing decisions,” Salesforce co-CEO Marc Benioff wrote in a letter to employees. “Amazon has weathered uncertain and difficult economies in the past, and we will continue to do so,” CEO Andy Jassy declared. “These changes will help us pursue our long-term opportunities with a stronger cost structure; however, I’m also optimistic that we’ll be inventive, resourceful, and scrappy in this time when we’re not hiring expansively and eliminating some roles.”

By the numbers: According to tracking website “layoffs.fyi,” more than 150K tech workers were fired in 2022, and that number is poised to grow this year. Companies in the industry that have shed employees include Airbnb , Booking Holdings, Carvana , Cisco , Groupon , HP , Lyft , Meta , Netflix , Peloton , Twitter, Uber  and Zillow .

Please Note: This service is only available for U.S.-based phone numbers but rest assured we are keeping a close eye on what is going on and Dr Nomi Prins is one very smart lady who has worked at some of the US Top Financial Companies and has her finger on the US Financial Markets.